The Verity Courier
Iranian Turmoil
By Ron Estes
11 October 2022
Iran is in turmoil, and the disturbances in the country are important to the United States. Unprecedented protests are sweeping Iran following the reported death of a 22 year old Kurdish woman, who was in police custody, having been arrested for not covering her hair in public. Displays of rebellion against the national leader Ayatollah Khamenei are historically rare. There are reports that Iranian authorities have killed over 150 people since the protests began on 17 September.
A recent state-run television broadcast was hacked by protestors showing Khamenie with a target on his head, and surrounded by flames. The interruption was cut off after a few seconds. The same day, social media showed a video of female students at the Tehran University shouting, “Get lost” during a visit of the country’s President.
The Middle East Muslim nations pay special attention to Iran. It is the only significant Shia governed nation in the region. Syria is governed by the Al Assad family, who are Alewites, a Shia sect, but Alewites make up only 14% of the Syrian population. Bahrain is also a Shia nation, but it is an insignificant player in the region except as the location of the U.S. Persian Gulf Naval Headquarters.
But Iran, with a land mass of over 630,000 square miles, a military establishment of over 500,000, a largely secular population of over 75 million, over 60% of which is under the age of 30, with a literacy rate higher than that of the U.S. is a major factor in the 1,390 year history of Sunni, Shia of confrontation.
The Biden Administration has been actively cultivating a new relationship with Iran to convince Iran to return to the nuclear agreement, the JCPOA, the Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action, which prevented Iran from enriching Uranium at nuclear weapon levels, and which Trump abrogated in 2018. U.S., Iran and European nations were very near a nuclear agreement when these protests erupted.
The United States has condemned the Iranian government’s violent suppression of these essentially peaceful protests, and has imposed sanctions on seven Iranian officials. The European Union is considering slapping additional sanctions on Iran, as human rights groups claim thousands have been arrested and hundreds injured in the crackdown by Iranian security forces. EU foreign ministers will discuss further sanctions on Iran at their next meeting,
For its part, the Iranian government was negotiating its return to the JCPOA seeking guarantees that the U.S. will not again withdraw from the agreement as Trump did, and reimpose new economic sanctions.
These protests, and the Iranian reactions, add new dimensions to the negotiations for Iran’s return to the JCPOA, and may bring negotiations to an end, thus again giving Iran freedom to renew its enrichment of nuclear weapon grade uranium.
The Trump abrogation of the Treaty allowed Iran to resume its uranium enrichment capabilities to the 60% levels that were in place before the agreement.
It seems incongruous that on the cusp of reestablishing the JCPOA, consisting of the P5+1, the UN Security Council's five permanent members (the P5) plus Germany, treaty with Iran, the world will be reintroduced to a potential Iranian nuclear threat rooted in the reaction of the Iranian government, to protests over the death of a woman for not covering her hair, and the repugnant responses of the Western alliance. There is a thin edge to many International crises
Ron Estes served 25 years as an Operations Officer in the CIA Clandestine Service